Weekly Market Insights
July 3, 2026 Volume 13 Issue 25
U.S. equities rose broadly, with the Nasdaq up 2.1%, the Dow 2.0%, and the S&P 500 1.8%. Small caps lagged, as the Russell 2000 declined 0.4% and the equal-weighted S&P 500 returned 1.1%. Developed international stocks outperformed, with Asia-Pacific up 1.4% and emerging markets down 1.2%. Leading sectors included communications (+5.0%), financials (+3.7%), and consumer discretionary (+2.8%). Lagging sectors were real estate (−1.3%), energy (−1.0%), and utilities (−1.0%). In fixed income, high-yield and municipals gained modestly, while long-duration bonds fell 4.1% and investment-grade corporates were flat. Silver surged 5.4%, and gold rose 1.9%. Crude oil fell 0.6% on normalized Persian Gulf supply; natural gas rose 0.3%. Alternative assets were mixed, with bitcoin and private equity outperforming REITs.
June nonfarm payrolls came in at 57,000, well below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 135,000. Average hourly earnings were $37.64. The K-shaped consumer narrative persisted, with wealth gains concentrated among asset owners, and survey quality remained a point of debate. Hormuz shipping recovered after the U.S.-Iran peace deal, with oil flows exceeding 10 million bpd. LNG flows stayed limited, keeping European gas prices high — futures rose 8% for the week. EU gas storage was 49% full on July 1, below the 5-year norm of 64%. Tariff burden-sharing remained contested.
Fed Chair Warsh reiterated at the ECB’s Sintra forum that the Fed will not provide forward guidance, calling it a “new course” for the central bank. He signaled a preference for a gradual reduction in the balance sheet and announced that task force leaders will be named next week. Markets shifted rate-hike expectations toward December through March.
Throughout the week, main themes focused on AI capital discipline, emphasizing return on invested capital, token costs, and concentration risk. Structural themes included Hormuz energy security, leverage, retail flows, bitcoin ETF outflows, and the widening performance gap between AI and non-AI equities.
Have a great weekend!
The data and commentary provided herein is for informational purposes only. No warranty is made with respect to any information provided. It is offered with the understanding that Hilltop Holdings Inc., PlainsCapital Corporation, Hilltop Securities and PlainsCapital Bank (collectively “PCB”) are not, hereby, rendering financial and/or investment advice, and use of the same does not create any relationship with PCB. This is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities that may be described or referred to herein. PCB does not provide tax or legal advice. Please consult your own tax or legal advisor regarding your specific situation. Whether any of the information contained herein applies to a specific situation depends on the facts of that particular situation. Investment and estate planning and management decisions may have significant financial consequences and should be made only after consulting with professionals qualified to offer legal, accounting and taxation advice. Neither this document nor any portion of its content’s supplements, amends or modifies any account agreement with PCB. Unless otherwise noted:
*All economic release data referenced from public sources believed to be accurate. *The source of data for all charts/graphs included in this presentation is Bloomberg LP. *Figures quoted represent monthly changes (m/m) and are seasonally adjusted.