Weekly Market Insights
October 9, 2026 Volume 13 Issue 39
U.S. equity leadership broadened, with equal-weighted stocks outperforming the broader index and large-cap value ahead of growth and small caps. Energy and defensive sectors led, while technology lagged. Internationally, Latin America stood out as emerging markets outpaced developed markets. Fixed income favored longer maturities over shorter bonds and investment-grade credit over high yield. Natural gas led commodities; REITs outperformed bitcoin.
The U.S. economy continued to grow, though renewed inflation weighed on households. Corporate earnings offered a stronger picture: Goldman Sachs projected third-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth of 27% year-over-year, driven by AI infrastructure spending, while management guidance remained elevated. Growth was less robust abroad, as political uncertainty delayed French business investment and weak consumption and a property slump weighed on China.
September’s Fed minutes reinforced expectations for another rate increase this year, with little urgency for October, allowing more time to assess economic conditions. Treasury buybacks aimed to smooth disorderly trading amid substantial government and corporate borrowing. Strong demand at the 10-year Treasury auction helped temper rising long-term yields amid fiscal and geopolitical uncertainty, while higher coupons provided a larger cushion against potential bond price declines.
Financing pressures remained uneven: credit stress was concentrated among the lowest-rated borrowers, while AI investment continued to generate substantial borrowing needs. AI-related companies accounted for 49% of the S&P 500’s market value, highlighting concentration alongside that capital demand. Fuel supply remained constrained despite recovering Gulf crude shipments, as diesel shortages persisted and narrower U.S. shipping waivers restricted domestic deliveries, sustaining inflation pressures.
Have a great week!
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*All economic release data referenced from public sources believed to be accurate. *The source of data for all charts/graphs included in this presentation is Bloomberg LP. *Figures quoted represent monthly changes (m/m) and are seasonally adjusted.